Georges Sassine’s interview on CNN’s Marketplace Middle East. On January 16, 2014 CNN’s Mohammed Jamjoom reports on the ripple effect of the Syrian war on Lebanon.

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By Georges Sassine

Lebanese elections are postponed which means that time is available to rethink electoral reform and better position moderate and independent political candidates.

One of the major issues distorting Lebanon’s political process has been foreign financing of political campaigns. Corruption and vote-buying has become the norm, independent and moderate candidates are out-competed, and the public interest is rarely served.

Taming big money in Lebanese politics can be addressed on two fronts.

The first one is through campaign financing regulations and oversight mechanisms. The goal is to ensure transparent disclosure and monitoring of political finances. Efforts are focused around finding the proper regulation design and more importantly on its implementation and enforcement.

Relative to past Lebanese electoral practices progress is being made on a political finance framework and should be seriously considered in future electoral reform debates.

Crowd funding tools can be game-changing and enable a true independent political movement in Lebanon.Georges Sassine

While pessimists doubt significant progress on that front in the near-term, a second measure could have more immediate results. Crowd funding is changing politics in the United States and it is time it is adopted in Lebanon.

Collecting small donations from Lebanese residents and expatriates through social networks and allowing them to transparently track how their contributions are spent could potentially raise significant amounts of funding. With tens of millions of Lebanese across the globe the potential is enormous. If only 1 percent of the Lebanese community donated just $9 a month for a year, more than ten million dollars could be raised.

Crowd funding tools can be game-changing and enable the formation of a true independent and national movement in Lebanon. It will level the playing field and enable independent candidates to compete for political office. The source of funding will also impact the credibility of candidates, increase voter turnouts, and empower citizens to hold elected officials accountable.

In short, money has changed politics in Lebanon to the worse. Maybe political finance regulations and crowd-funding tools can reverse this trend and money can change politics in Lebanon to the better.

By Georges Sassine

Fundamental social, economic and political change is urgently needed to improve the life of Lebanese citizens and strengthen our nation’s governance.

Many Lebanese debate various ways to bring about change and reform in Lebanon. However, most of the suggested policies only focus on tackling technical issues and fail to address how to implement them and help people adapt to new rules.

Take for example the numerous times enforcement of traffic laws was attempted in Lebanon. Millions of dollars were invested in mounting cameras at traffic lights; radars were installed to track speed limits; and police personnel were deployed to penalize parking and seat belt violations. All these measures were technical by nature and were never successfully implemented for more than a few months, at best. The common explanations are the lack of political commitment, or the ineffectiveness of enforcement agencies.

Behavioral science could inform the design of reforms in Lebanon.Georges Sassine

However, an important part that is often ignored is the fact that “illegal” driving has become a habit of many Lebanese citizens. It has almost become a cultural trait. In this case technical solutions will continue on failing. Instead what is needed are ways to help Lebanese drivers adapt to new laws, and change their bad driving habits.

Studying human behavioral science might prove useful and inform the design of reforms in Lebanon.

In his book “The Power of Habit“ New York Times reporter, Charles Duhigg, investigated how to diagnose habits and change them among individuals, companies and societies. He found that you cannot extinguish a bad habit, you can only change it.

He quotes researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) who suggest a basic three stage formula at the core of each habit: a signal, a routine, and a reward.  They found that each habit is triggered by a signal. It could be a certain time, location, or emotion which then activates a routine. Once completed, this routine provides a certain sense of reward and satisfaction.

In order to replace bad habits, Duhigg argues that the same signals and rewards must be kept but a new routine has to be inserted.

In Lebanon, for example, in the early 1970s low income communities gathered every Sunday along the streets leading to the national airport. They barbecued and held festive lunches along road medians – the narrow and long area planted with grass and trees separating opposing traffic lanes. While peaceful by nature these large get-togethers attracted the criticism of many local communities and tourists witnessing these scenes at the airport’s exit. After the failure of several negotiations to stop these gatherings, the Lebanese armed forces were sent to clear public spaces. This led to violent clashes and cascaded into prolonged and politicized protests.

The Minister of Tourism quickly realized that confrontational measures will not resolve the issue. Instead he ordered firefighters to heavily water green areas in these specific road medians every Saturday evening for several weeks. Come Sunday these public spaces were muddy and uncomfortable and ended the crowd turnout.

Applying Duhigg’s three step framework, the signal is Sunday mornings when these communities engaged in the routine of gathering and eating in public spaces. The reward is the sense of community and satisfaction they get at the end. Keeping that same signal and reward, the Minister of Tourism enabled them to replace that particular habit with other Sunday afternoon activities that still fulfilled their craving.

Similar to this case, current Lebanese decision makers could use the signal, routine, reward framework for fresh insights as they deal with situations requiring behavioral change.

Innovation and creativity is the only way to approach Lebanon’s challenges … focusing on changing habits and helping people adapt could be the cornerstone of leadership in Lebanon.Georges Sassine

Another noteworthy concept introduced by Duhigg is that some habits – called ‘Keystone Habits’ – can start a chain reaction and change several other behaviors. He uses the example of Alcoa, a major aluminum company struggling in the 1980s. Instead of introducing traditional cost reduction measures the new CEO focused on one priority within the company: improving workers safety. As new routines moved through the organization, costs came down, quality went up, productivity skyrocketed and within two years Alcoa was the top performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The lesson is that patterns across organizations and societies can be changed if we prioritize these keystone habits. However, identifying them is tricky and requires a bit of ingenuity.

In Lebanon, these two main concepts can be used to improve driving patterns. One interpretation suggests that the signal is when a driver sees a red traffic light. It triggers his routine of speeding, burning the light, and provides the reward of feeling important and some sense of satisfaction that he is smarter than other drivers who have stopped.

As we look closer one can’t help but notice that some Lebanese not respecting laws or order is not limited to traffic lights. It could be argued that it is a widespread phenomenon across many other situations such as cutting lines, evading business laws, disregarding the non-smoking policy, and cutting corners in many mundane aspects of daily life. Wanting to outwit the system has become ingrained in Lebanese culture. Therefore, a better way to resolve the driving issues in Lebanon could be to think about that broader social habit instead of only focusing on bad driving in itself.

Concentrating on keystone habits could be the better approach in this case.

We have to acknowledge that many Lebanese citizens operate within a frustrating environment. These habits are nurtured in an unstable and uncertain economic, security, and political context which they’ve been subjected to most of their lives. These could be guiding insights to identify the right keystone habits to focus on.

The priority should be on securing financial stability and family security for Lebanese. If the government is absolutely dedicated to achieve these two goals, similar to Alcoa’s example, a chain reaction could start and change other behaviors including driving patterns.

There is no doubt that these issues deserve more in-depth thought.  But Lebanese politicians and citizens need to recognize that innovation and creativity should be the way to approach our country’s challenges. The science of human habits and behavioral change could provide a useful framework to think through reform initiatives in Lebanon.

 
On February 15, 2013 the Lebanese Minister of Energy and Water held a press conference launching the pre-qualification process for oil companies to bid on offshore oil and gas exploration. The Minister outlined the timeline and next steps in Lebanon’s offshore oil and gas sector.

The licensing and bidding phase is expected to take a year to complete. Contracts are expected to be signed with winning international oil companies in February 2014, according to the Minister of Energy and Water.

The exploration for oil and gas will then start immediately and be completed in 18-24 months. The development phase can then take its course in 2016 before full oil and gas production and revenues start flowing to the Lebanese government.

The first oil and gas commercially extracted is expected in 2017-2018 – assuming no technical or political delays.

The announcement only focused on Lebanon’s offshore licensing, exploration and production phases. No announcements have been made on next steps regarding the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund and the management of oil and gas revenues; nor the development of Lebanon’s onshore oil and gas resources besides the launch of onshore seismic surveys.

What is the current status of Syrian refugees? How is the Lebanese government responding? And what still needs to be done?

In the months ahead, one of the most important challenges facing the Lebanese government will be its ability to manage the influx of Syrian refugees.  Lebanon’s goal should be to fulfill its humanitarian responsibilities, while maintaining its national security and limiting socio-economic impacts on local Lebanese communities.  

What is the current status of Syrian refugees?

Every day, 2,000 to 3,000 Syrians are fleeing their homes across borders into Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey. These four countries now host more than 400,000 Syrian refugees. At this pace, the United Nations expects there to be as many as 700,000 Syrian refugees in neighboring countries by the end of this year.

In Lebanon, the number of registered refugees has now climbed to 120,906 – even higher than in Turkey – but the real total is far larger, as many choose not to register. As the Syrian conflict drags on, the number of displaced Syrians entering the country will continue to rise.

About 78 per cent of Syrian refugees in Lebanon are women and children. The majority (64%) originates from the city of Homs – the rest originate from various Syrian cities: 8% from Damascus, 7.7% from Aleppo, 7.5% from Idleb, 6% from Hama, and 6% from other cities.

Syrian refugees are distributed across Lebanon. The majority are split between the North of Lebanon (53%) and the Bekaa (42%), while the rest is spread between Beirut (1%), Mount Lebanon (2%), and the South (2%).

How is the Lebanese government responding?

The flow of Syrian refugees has been raising tensions in Lebanon. Local communities are witnessing socio-economic and security implications. Petty crimes against Lebanese citizens are on the rise. Harassment of Syrian workers in Lebanon is growing. Members of the Free Syrian Army are believed to be amongst the refugees in Lebanon. Kidnappings of Lebanese citizens in northern Syria, followed by retaliatory kidnappings of Syrians in Lebanon, have added to the tensions, as did the assassination in Beirut last month of Brig Gen Wissam al-Hassan whose death was widely blamed on the Syrian government.

The challenge of the Lebanese government is to balance between its humanitarian responsibilities, and manage the political, security, and economic risks of the Syrian refugee crisis. It is no easy feat.

The Lebanese government has been partnering with foreign governments, as well as international and local organizations to provide shelter, food, healthcare, schooling and other services to displaced Syrians.

Fifty-two humanitarian organizations are working to support the growing number of Syrian refugees. Coordinated by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), an inter-agency regional response plan was developed in which Lebanon is a part of. The UNHCR issued an appeal for almost $500 million. To date, only 30 per cent has been funded, and Lebanon received a portion of the collected funds.

The High Relief Commission (HCR) is leading the coordination and implementation of relief efforts on behalf of the Lebanese Government. Several ministries and institutions are participating in various efforts, including the Ministry of Social Affairs, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Health, the Lebanese Armed Forces, and the Internal Security Forces.

 
What still needs to be done?

Until Syria’s conflict is resolved the flow of Syrian refugees to Lebanon will continue to grow. The success of the Lebanese government in managing the associated risks hinges on its ability to secure adequate funding and logistical support.

On the eve of winter, the Lebanese government asked donor countries to contribute an additional $450 million to help them provide for the growing number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

The most serious issue facing displaced Syrians in Lebanon is the issue of shelter. Lebanon is ruling out erecting refugee camps as done in Turkey, Jordan and Iraq for political reasons. Instead, other options are being considered by the Lebanese government, including using abandoned buildings as collective shelters, paying Lebanese families who are hosting Syrian refugees, and covering the rent of some of the poorest refugee families.

In conclusion, the Lebanese government’s policy should be focused on managing future threats instead of solely reacting to them. In your opinion, how should Lebanon plan to respond to the growing number of Syrian refugees on its territory?

By Georges Sassine

Lebanon’s paralyzed governance system is leading many to rethink its political structure. Opinions vary on the best path forward including federalism, other forms of administrative decentralization, and many others.

One solution put forward by analysts is the establishment of a Senate as declared by the Taef Agreement. The premise is that the Senate would represent the different religious groups while Parliament would be open for political representation away from sectarian quotas. Advocates argue that this measure would reduce confessionalism in the Lebanese political system, while maintaining minorities’ rights.

Elias Muhanna, Assistant Professor at Brown University, recently published a paper raising the key questions around establishing a Senate in Lebanon, and explores the different options related to a Senate composition, possible methods of election, jurisdiction, and its relationship to other government bodies.

Key Points from Elias Muhanna’s Paper

The idea of a Senate is not new in Lebanese political history. Lebanon observed a Senate alongside Parliament for a year and half in 1926 and was abolished on October 17, 1927 – because it was viewed as “too expensive, too slow, and too weak”.  

The Taef Agreement in 1989 called for a Senate but its vague formulation led to conflicting interpretations of the role it should play. The common assumption is that such a Senate would be headed by a Druze but no serious action has been taken towards its establishment.

Muhanna argues that the effectiveness of a Senate would depend on the way it is designed. He highlights the complex range of options available to set up a Senate in Lebanon – which I attempt to summarize in the table below.

According to Muhanna, the way a Senate is designed

“could potentially free the government from its legislative gridlock, ushering the possibility of issue-based politics and electoral laws that permit the emergence of liberal voices. [Or it] could prove to be a disastrous policy for Lebanon, one which would paralyze its government, adding new layers of costly bureaucracy and creating an additional arena for corrupt and reactionary politics.”

My Opinion

I personally doubt the success of establishing a Senate in the current Lebanese sociopolitical context. A top-down approach is unlikely to abolish confessionalism in Lebanon. Instead, a more effective method would require a longer term bottom-up approach allowing civil marriage, as well as reforming our education system as prerequisites to a more functional democratic model.

Muhanna’s paper is a must-read for all Lebanese. We must be aware of the pros and cons of a Senate system and consider it as a potential option moving forward.

However, before debating whether or not a Senate should be enforced in Lebanon, the immediate concerns of policy makers should be protecting Lebanon from a Syria spillover, reforming the electoral law, and appointing the members of the Oil and Gas commission.

By Georges Sassine

It is possible to make it easier to do business in Lebanon. One potential solution is to simplify the government’s bureaucracy and reduce administrative paperwork.

The Problem

While starting a business in Hong Kong requires standing in one line and filling one form, it takes weeks, if not longer, in Lebanon.

Currently it takes a company in Lebanon almost 2 years to enforce commercial contracts and 37 administrative procedures, compared to an average of 1.4 years in Western countries. This places Lebanon at the 104^th place among 183 countries worldwide in terms of ease of doing business, according to the World Bank. Lebanon lags behind countries like Papua New Guinea, Yemen, Jordan, and Sri Lanka.

Lebanon is competing in a 21^st century global economy with a 20^th century bureaucracy. This is hindering economic growth, making it harder for entrepreneurs to start new businesses, and making it less attractive for foreign companies to invest in Lebanon.

A Potential Solution

Fortunately, it is possible to make it easier to do business in Lebanon in a few simple steps.

Just by simplifying the government’s bureaucracy, eliminating waste and inefficiencies – as simple as it sounds – could significantly boost Lebanese businesses.

One potential solution is to consolidate all government agencies dealing with business into one Department with one website, one phone number and one mission: helping Lebanese businesses succeed.

Other countries are adopting similar initiatives. Even the United States – which ranks 4^th worldwide on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index – is pursuing a similar plan, including:

–  Merging Government Agencies: the USA will merge the six federal departments focusing on business and trade into a single department tasked with boosting American business and promoting competitiveness.

–  A One-Stop Shop Website: the USA will be unveiling a new website: Business USA. This site will be a virtual one-stop shop with information for businesses that want to begin or increase exporting.

This is one example of the kind of action to consider. In your opinion, what are other simple and effective ways to improve the business environment in Lebanon?